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Jim Paul's meteoric rise took him from a small town in Northern Kentucky to governor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, yet he lost it all―his fortune, his reputation, and his job―in one fatal attack of excessive economic hubris. In this honest, frank analysis, Paul and Brendan Moynihan revisit the events that led to Paul's disastrous decision and examine the psychological factors behind bad financial practices in several economic sectors.
This book―winner of a 2014 Axiom Business Book award gold medal―begins with the unbroken string of successes that helped Paul achieve a jet-setting lifestyle and land a key spot with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It then describes the circumstances leading up to Paul's $1.6 million loss and the essential lessons he learned from it―primarily that, although there are as many ways to make money in the markets as there are people participating in them, all losses come from the same few sources.
Investors lose money in the markets either because of errors in their analysis or because of psychological barriers preventing the application of analysis. While all analytical methods have some validity and make allowances for instances in which they do not work, psychological factors can keep an investor in a losing position, causing him to abandon one method for another in order to rationalize the decisions already made. Paul and Moynihan's cautionary tale includes strategies for avoiding loss tied to a simple framework for understanding, accepting, and dodging the dangers of investing, trading, and speculating.
- Sales Rank: #170333 in Books
- Published on: 2013-04-30
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.25" h x 5.75" w x .75" l, .79 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 192 pages
Review
Worthwhile reading for those who don't believe in the holy grail in the markets; a must-read for those who do.
(Jack Schwager, author of Hedge Fund Market Wizards)
A novel approach aimed at pushing you inside your head and outside the losing habits most folks adopt right after multiple successes. A must-have for traders blessed with a string of hot trades.
(Ken Fisher, Fisher Investments FORBES)
At Ned Davis Research, we like to say that we are in the business of making mistakes and that the only difference between winners and losers is that winners make small mistakes and losers, big mistakes. This book does an excellent job in explaining in simple English the potential psychological 'flaws' that cause investors to make big mistakes.
(Ned Davis, Ned Davis Research, Inc.)
One of the rare noncharlatanic books in finance.
(Nassim Nicholas Taleb, from Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder)
Plenty of books recount past successes or focus on how to make money in the market, but what about keeping the money you already have? This may seem like a high-class problem, but it is a very real challenge for investors with substantial capital.
(John Mihaljevic Beyond Proxy)
[An] enlightening read.
(Brenda Jubin Investing.com)
The book points out very early that many successful investors have opposing styles and theories on how to make money, and that they can not all be right at the same time. The most important point to take from the book is how to avoid losing money...
(Steve Osbiston Financial Times Advisor)
Review
Seldom do we hear the message that the management of risk, not just the taking of risk, is at the heart of success in habitual entrepreneurs. Just as the professional athlete learns to play his or her game mentally before the actual contest, so the successful entrepreneur reduces the risk of the new challenge by planning before implementing.
(Edward M. Moldt, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, Bloomington)
About the Author
Jim Paul (1943–2001) was first vice president in charge of the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. International Energy Unit in New York City. During his twenty-five-year career in the futures industry, he was a retail broker, floor trader, and research director and served on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Board of Governors and the Executive Committee.
Brendan Moynihan is a managing director at Marketfield Asset Management LLC, where his understanding of markets and the media helps shape their macro views and allocations. He is an adjunct professor of finance at Vanderbilt University's Owen Graduate School of Management. He is also the author of Financial Origami: How the Wall Street Model Broke. He lives in Barrington Hills, Illinois, with his wife and two sons.
Jack Schwager is the author of the best-selling Market Wizard series as well as the three-volume Schwager on Futures. His latest work, Market Sense and Nonsense, was published in November 2012. He is currently the portfolio manager for the ADMIS Diversified Strategies Fund. His experience includes twenty-two years as director of futures research for some of Wall Street's leading firms.
Most helpful customer reviews
107 of 114 people found the following review helpful.
A rare book indeed.
By rimshaker
I'm a self taught investor/trader (arent we all) so I've collected my share of books. But this one by Jim Paul/Brendan Moynihan is the most unique book I have ever read so far. It's the only book which correctly points out that trading and investing are personal journeys; about finding out who are you, and then how to manage what you find out. Until you do, one can never be consistently successful at this game. This is largely why the public can never make a career out of trading. It never dawns on them that it's all about soul searching and then applying your strengths while controlling your weaknesses. Everyone is different; which is why there are infinite ways to make a profit. There are no "secrets" to trading. It never dawns on them that investing seminars are utterly useless. It never dawns on them that you don't have to watch CNBC either.
The book is basically two sections. Jim describes his life stories in the first part, then Brendan writes about the psychology of it all in the second part. Copies of this book are relatively pricey given the rarity. Wait until several sellers show up to take advantage of price competition. Good luck trying to find it in public libraries. This book is worth every dollar I spent to read it. It's one of those that you'd want to reread once a year so you never forget the correct way to approach the markets. The earlier in your career you get a chance to read this book, the better off you'll be.
37 of 39 people found the following review helpful.
One of the best books on trading out there ...
By Michael E. Strupp
This book should be required reading for anyone who thinks they "wanna trade like the pros" and become a full-time financial markets trader. This book makes it clear that most people don't lose because of what the market does but because of how they respond to the markets ... and how they handle losing trades.
Jim Paul's realization that there are countless ways to make money in financial markets and only a few ways to lose it is very insightful and though provoking. Read it again and again.
58 of 65 people found the following review helpful.
Luck beats smarts but luck runs out
By Mercenary Trader
An alternative title to this book could be, "What I learned losing my ego."
After describing a meteoric rise to the top of the Chicago food chain, Jim Paul essentially boils down the secret of his success to being a cocky punk with an exceptional lucky streak that had to run out.
I think he gives himself less credit than he deserves in ascribing all his early success to luck--it takes confidence and selling ability to take advantage of the "lucky breaks" he got--but that is beside the point. His main message is that success fed his ego until he felt that winning was his birthright. He thought he could do no wrong, which led to inevitable downfall.
One small quibble. The ironic thing about Paul's stories of loss are that he was 99% there most of the time. If he hadn't have let the bean oil get back to zero, he could have walked away with at least a couple hundred grand in profits... if he hadn't let the stock options purchased for an eighth (or whatever it was) go to zero after seeing them hit $4, he could have had six figures in profit there again, etcetera.... I got the impression that even the big downfalls in this book were actually success stories with "oops" endings tacked on.
In this light, I didn't really understand the blurbs on the back talking about how Jim Paul shows you the perils of the trading game. What perils? The perils of not taking a huge, monster profit when it is sitting in front of your face?
This is why I have to think the book will probably just reinforce the ideas that readers already have when they pick it up. Someone with a big ego and a small mind could easily think in the back of his mind, "Nice story, Jim... good thing I won't make the same mistakes you made. Because while you just thought you were the man, I actually AM the man, heh heh..." But then again this isn't much of a criticism. I mean, who can reach those types anyway?
The last half of the book reads almost like someone else wrote it, and has some very good points. I liked the way he took comments from a bunch of the "pros" (traders who have won big and kept their winnings) and juxtaposed their ideas, to show how successful traders' thought processes are sometimes totally different and often contradict each other.
It really hammers home the point that there are multiple paths up the profit mountain, and that discipline and defense are often the only truly common elements among a broad universe of strategies. I also thought the book made a really great point about odds--hat the reward to risk ratio on a trade has nothing to do with actual probability of success for that trade.
An entertaining book worth a weekend read.
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